End of the Road (Part II)

Part 2 of a three-part series previewing the ACHA Division 1 national championship tournament (Part 1).

In yesterday's post addressing Friday's first round, I predicted that Oakland, Davenport, West Virginia and Central Oklahoma will advance. How will they fare against the top twelve seeds in a sixteen-team second round? Let's find out.

5. Liberty (23-8-4) vs. 12. Adrian (25-13-1)

Saturday, 10:00 a.m.
East Rink

National Championships: Liberty: none, Adrian: none
Last Tournament Appearance: Liberty: 2010 (10th), Adrian: 2011 (5th)
Liberty: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Adrian: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

The first second-round matchup to be played might be the most intriguing, because it involves two teams that are capable of beating just about any team in the country. Penn State saw that characteristic in Liberty firsthand back in December, while Adrian has a win over No. 4 Arizona State and a one-goal loss to second-seeded Lindenwood on their resume. Of course, both teams have had a look at the reverse scenario as well - AC has lost to Eastern Michigan (in a shootout), while the Flames lost to Stony Brook.

Adrian, the GLCHL tournament champs, scores a ton of goals - nearly five per game - and a lot of them have something to do with Ryan Bachman, a sophomore from the Chicago area who is the fourth-leading scorer in the entire ACHA and tops among those at the tournament.

Ryan Bachman probably doesn't support Michelle Bachman as much as Liberty.

Liberty scores quite a few goals themselves, many coming off of a physical forecheck, and can answer the Bulldogs' star power with Brent Boschman, who sits just behind Bachman on the points leaderboard. Those players were prominent when Bulldogs and Flames met for two in Lynchburg back in October, with Boschman's three points fueling a 6-2 LU win before Bachman's side got revenge to the tune of 4-3 the next day.

For this one I'm expecting scoring, and I'm expecting a late Adrian power play goal to advance to the quarterfinals. I feel like the Bulldogs are a little underseeded, they're coming in on a roll, and they'll certainly be motivated after how their season ended last year in Delaware.

Pick: Adrian, 6-5.

4. Arizona State (28-5-1) vs. 13. Oakland (21-15-2)

Saturday, 11:00 a.m.
West Rink

National Championships: Arizona State: none, Oakland: 2007
Last Tournament Appearance: Arizona State: 2011 (10th), Oakland: 2011 (8th)
Arizona State: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Oakland: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

Because of their geographic isolation, many of you might not be aware of this, but Arizona State is good. Very good. National championship good. Consider their record against the top six seeds this season: 5-1-0, a mark that includes wins over each except themselves (naturally) and Penn State (PSU, incidentally, is a similarly good 6-2-0 against Ohio, Liberty and Delaware). Largely because of that, they cruise into Strongsville with the highest seed in program history.

Senior Mark Schacker, an ACHA all-star last season, gives ASU a solid foundation in net. Here's video of some of his teammates from a 7-3 win against Central Oklahoma this year.

I think the thing that strikes me there is that the guys stepping in that game weren't top scorers Dan Styrna or Kale Dolinski, but secondary guys Dave Jantzie and Patrick Rogan. Another mark of a great team. And lest you think that the Sun Devils are feasting on a parade of opponents on long road trips to Tempe, they're 9-2-1 outside of their home state, including wins over tournament teams Adrian, Liberty, Delaware, Davenport, Kent State (yeah, I know) and UCO.

In the end, too much talent for Oakland to handle, and I don't believe the Grizzlies' goalie rotation of Matt Toter and Corey Hrischuk is good enough to steal one.

Pick: Arizona State, 5-1.

6. Ohio (26-13-1) vs. 11. Illinois (16-16-1)

Saturday, 1:00 p.m.
East Rink

National Championships: Ohio: 1995-1997, 2004, Illinois: 2005, 2008
Last Tournament Appearance: Ohio: 2011 (3rd), Illinois: 2010 (6th)
Ohio: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Illinois: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

If you're a fan of the "classic" ACHA, then this is the game for you. Two tradition-laden programs that are both on the exclusive list of those with multiple national championships (Penn State, North Dakota State and Lindenwood are the only others). Ohio has four, which is a big part of why they're generally regarded as the second most successful program ever. Illinois has only half that many to its credit, but they do have one thing OU doesn't: that 38-0-0 2008 team is the only one in ACHA history with a perfect record.

There's more that makes this game appealing, of course. The two teams are bitter CSCHL rivals. Furthermore, Illini coach Chad Cassel, who has built one of the ACHA's great programs since taking over in Champaign, is retiring after the season.

"I been doing this for 16 years,” Cassel said. "It’s been a lot of fun, but it’s time. I feel like I got one more good run in me here in the national tournament."

I'm not so sure that he does. I shouldn't need to explain Ohio to any Icers fan, but just in case: Michael Schultz, Tyler Pilmore, Brett Agnew, Nick Rostek. Expect to see those guys on the scoresheet a lot, and expect to be impressed by the team's defensive forwards as well. I mentioned that the Bobcats and Illini share a conference, so I'm sure you're wondering how their games went this year.

Specifically, 4-1 and 5-1 wins for OU at Bird Arena in early January. While Illinois will certainly play hard for their coach, that and neutral ice aren't worth a four-goal swing.

Pick: Ohio, 4-2.

3. Delaware (30-3-1) vs. 14. Davenport (21-19-0)

Saturday, 2:00 p.m.
West Rink

National Championships: Delaware: none, Davenport: 2011
Last Tournament Appearance: Delaware: 2011 (4th), Davenport: 2011 (1st)
Delaware: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Davenport: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

I'm concerned about Delaware, for a few reasons.

For starters, they got a raw deal from a certain segment of poll voters and the ACHA rulebook. After finishing second in the final regular season rankings, they were bumped down to the third seed by a ridiculous ACHA rule that counts the votes of every coach for purposes of deciding who makes the tournament but only those of qualifying coaches to determine seeding. So the Blue Hens have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder, and rightfully so, since the coaches in Strongsville don't regard them as highly as the larger Division 1 group.

What sounds like a technicality becomes much more significant when you consider that while second-seeded Lindenwood draws UCO or Kent State in the second round, UD might get the defending champs. Sure Davenport's not quite the same Davenport, but they do need to be considered capable of taking down the Hens - or just about anyone.

Delaware's also coming into this thing a little bit wobbly. After winning the ESCHL regular season championship, they were dispatched 7-2 by Rhode Island in the league playoffs. Backup goalie Nick Casella played in that game, and rumors that starter S.J. Broadt (one of the ACHA's best) has a broken foot are out there. All of it points to UD being extremely ripe for an upset. And really, you shouldn't be surprised if it happens. In fact, my first instinct was to call for it here, but after further contemplation, I think the Hens have talent and depth up front (Ryan McDonald, Christian Tasker, Kevin Miller, Andre Menard, and on and on...) to carry the day here regardless of the goaltender.

Pick: Delaware, 5-4.

8. Iowa State (28-9-5) vs. 9. Oklahoma (25-12-2)

Saturday, 4:00 p.m.
East Rink

National Championships: Iowa State: 1992, 1999, Oklahoma: none
Last Tournament Appearance: Iowa State: 2010 (2nd), Oklahoma: 2011 (7th)
Iowa State: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Oklahoma: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

After missing this tournament for the first time in program history, Al Murdoch's team had a nice bounceback year. Long-time ACHA followers know what that means:

Yep, the Cyclone Hockey Cheer Squad will be back at nationals. I'll let each of you form your own opinions as to whether that's a good thing or not. Whatever your take on hockey cheerleaders generally or these hockey cheerleaders specifically, I've always found it a little awkward when they're up in front of a sparse and non-responsive crowd, as happens when two light-traveling teams play each other.

More to the point of the on-ice product, ISU has spurned the tradition of Glenn Detulleo (he's still playing pro hockey, by the way) and are decidedly a defense-first team, just as they were when they made their surprise run to the 2010 national championship game. Back then, it was goalie Erik Hudson leading the way. This year's team 2.50 goals against average is largely due to Paul Karus, Hudson's understudy in 2010, but now the starter. Don't be fooled into thinking it's strictly a goaltending effort though - ISU has eight defensemen who played in either the NAHL or a Canadian Jr. A league. Among the highlights of this group's efforts: a 1-0 shutout of the Sooners on September 30th and a 2-1 win at Arizona State on November 5th. Jon Feavel scored the only goal of that Oklahoma game, and he's one to watch up front, as is J.P. Kascsak.

Regular TYT readers know that I consider Oklahoma one of the most talented teams in the ACHA, as they boast several former NAHLers of their own. Goalie Nick Holmes, a UCO transfer, is a stud, and Blake Martin, formerly of NCAA Division I Nebraska-Omaha, carries the mail up front. Shane Vorndran, who played a season and a half at ACHA Mercyhurst, is another of OU's top scorers. Yeah, they attract a lot of transfers too. Generally, the one-line assessment on the Sooners is that they're a team with a high ceiling, but one that can't stay out of the box. Martin was the poster child for that statement last year with a team-leading 143 penalty minutes in 38 games, but he's cut 70 percent from that number this year and the rest of the team is much improved as well.

While this will be one of the better games of the day, one that could go either way, I think Oklahoma's balance and a good game from Holmes get it done.

Pick: Oklahoma, 3-2.

1. Penn State (27-3-1) vs. 17. West Virginia (23-14-0)

Saturday, 5:00 p.m.
West Rink

National Championships: Penn State: 1998, 2000-2003, West Virginia: none
Last Tournament Appearance: Penn State: 2011 (11th), West Virginia: 2008 (14th)
Penn State: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
West Virginia: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

Pepper Jack, are you serious?

(Sorry, I'll save the serious analysis for the teams the Icers haven't beaten 8-0 and 6-1 this year. Or 13-2 and 9-0 if it's Rutgers in this game.)

Pick: Penn State, 8-2.

7. Minot State (25-6-2) vs. 10. Robert Morris (IL) (26-6-2)

Saturday, 7:00 p.m.
East Rink

National Championships: Minot State: none, Robert Morris: none
Last Tournament Appearance: Minot State: 2011 (9th), Robert Morris: 2011 (12th)
Minot State: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Robert Morris: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

Back when Minot wore a giant M on the front of their home sweaters, there was a very obvious comparison.

Of course, there's one glaring difference between the Beavers and Russell Crowe's band of misfits: when the New York Rangers come calling, Minot doesn't always show up to play. I've always thought this was a product of the Beavers' schedule, which tends to be a little sparse by necessity of geography. This year, they only played 19 games against other ACHA D1 teams, filling out most of the rest of their dates with nearby junior colleges. Often at the ACHA tournament, MSU would come out on fire, then drastically fade out within a couple of games. Last year that fade happened over the course of a single game, as Oakland appeared to strengthen late before upsetting the Beavers in overtime in the first round.

Before you assume that I'm going to go against Minot on that theory though, consider that outstanding goalie Wyatt Waselenchuk, leading scorer Josh Rutherford and their teammates may have already proven capable of the task in front of them. From January 26th through 29th, the Beavers played four games at Oklahoma and Central Oklahoma, and won all of them by a combined 15-2 score. I don't care who or what you are, or where you play, that's impressive.

Robert Morris has a pretty nice resume themselves (as tends to be the case with good teams coming from the always-tough CSCHL), and part of it includes going up to Minot in October and earning a split via a 4-3 shootout win. Goaltender Andy DiCristofaro sports a 1.83 goals against average, and he and his defense have proven they can shut down the best when on their game - see single goals allowed in games against Ohio and Adrian and two against in a game with Oklahoma for reference. Much like the Iowa State-Oklahoma game, I see a low-scoring affair that can go either way, but I'm giving this one to coach Wade Regier's side.

Pick: Minot State, 2-1.

2. Lindenwood (30-5-0) vs. 15. Central Oklahoma (15-22-1)

Saturday, 8:00 p.m.
West Rink

National Championships: Lindenwood: 2009, 2010, Central Oklahoma: none
Last Tournament Appearance: Lindenwood: 2011 (2nd), Central Oklahoma: 2010 (4th)
Lindenwood: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics
Central Oklahoma: Roster // Schedule/Results // Statistics

The Lions, as usual, come into the tournament as definite championship contenders - though probably not as the prohibitive favorites of the last several years. That's not to say that they're not extremely formidable with only four losses this season (three of which were to Oklahoma). All of those defeats have one thing in common: they happened a while ago. Rick Zombo's gang has reeled off 18 consecutive wins, including, most recently, a 6-4 win over Ohio at Bird Arena in the CSCHL championship game.

It was everything you would want a conference championship to be as both the Lions and Bobcats battled back and forth for most of the game. Lindenwood jumped out to an early lead as Steve Brancheau lit the lamp off a feed from Nick Carey just over two minutes into the first, but Ohio tied it with a power play goal midway through the period and then took a 2-1 lead to the first intermission with another goal with 8:17 left.

The Lions wasted no time in the second as Grant Gorczyca tied the game just 27 seconds into the period. Colin Long and Peppi Sipila assisted on the play. With 9:11 left, Lindenwood edged in front with a goal from Neeco Belanger assisted by Tobias Dahlstrom and Barclay Berner, but the Bobcats battled back to tie the game at 3-3 as they scored with only eight seconds remaining.

Defense prevailed through the first seven minutes of the third as neither team was able to find the back of the net, but Lindenwood capitalized with the man advantage when Brancheau scored on the power play from Tyler Bowman and Joe Bostic at the 12:45 left in the period. The key play of the game came two minutes later when Ohio was looking to tie the game on its own power play, but the Lions turned the tables when Niklas Bunnstedt broke free on a pass from Bostic and scored a short-handed goal with 10:36 left to give Lindenwood a 5-3 lead. The Lions extended that lead to three on the second goal from Gorczyca, assisted by Sipila and Bowman with 9:07 remaining. The Bobcats did get their fourth goal late in the third, but it wasn't enough as the Lions prevailed with the 6-4 win.

The Lions weren't a one-trick pony either, as they also plowed through the CSCHL (which includes OU, Iowa State, Robert Morris (IL), Illinois, Kent State and Indiana) unbeaten. Incidentally, in the out-of-conference portion of the schedule, LU's record includes 4-0-0 against UCO, and only one of those games was closer than a three-goal margin. So yeah, I'm advancing Lindenwood. There's just too much there for a largely one-trick Bronchos squad.

Pick: Lindenwood, 5-1.

In tomorrow's finale, we'll go all the way from the quarterfinals through to the Murdoch Cup with the eight remaining teams: Adrian, Arizona State, Ohio, Delaware, Oklahoma, Penn State, Minot State and Lindenwood.

Nationals Day 2/Penn State 3, Robert Morris (IL) 1

Collegian summary // Collegian recap
Onward State recap // VFTB highlights // Black Shoe Diaries recap
Team press release // Box score

For some teams, the season ends with jubilation, a happy team photo, and the handing out of a trophy. For most it ends quite differently.

I couldn't help but think about the half-circle of the Icers season while I watched this game. Remember October 8th? It was the first appearance of Penn State hockey at home after the big donation announcement. A packed Ice Pavilion, including the Pegula family and Dr. Spanier witnessed an 11-0 dismantling of Drexel. High hopes and good feelings with an eye on the future was the order of the day.

On March 6th, the story was quite different, and a lot more depressing. I counted about 30 people in the bleachers at puck drop. I was apparently the only one who even noticed the team take the ice, based on the applause. On the Icers' second goal, by Dom Morrone, the PA announcer read from the wrong roster and gave credit for the goal to Robert Morris' No. 19, Dave Bauer. Nick Fina (No. 27) and Geno Malone (No. 23) got the assists. The whole progression sort of felt like This Is Spinal Tap - next up, opening for a puppet show.

Let it be known that 2010-2011 Penn State hockey died in this snazzy venue.

My next thought went to the seniors. I watched Teddy Hume carefully throughout the warmup and as the game progressed and couldn't help but feel a little bad for him. I'm sure this season hasn't played out how he would've liked, but he should hold his head high. For all the struggles, he went out like a champ, against Rutgers and now Robert Morris. He's one of the best Penn State has ever seen. I just wish he could have gotten the shutout. But then again, maybe imperfection is fitting in a way.

Chris Pronchik was another guy who had a fantastic game. Yeah, there was the goal, a first-period shorthanded (how else?) tally from Marek Polidor (who else?) that held up as the only one of the game into the third period, but the Eagles had no answer for his speed all game long. Whenever PSU was threatening, there's a pretty good chance it was because No. 9 was beating a guy to the outside and drawing a penalty, coming hard on the backcheck to steal the puck and turn it around, or something else that involves speed and effort.

Nick Seravalli stepped in between Polidor and Chris Cerutti pretty effectively, and he's a guy that I hope to see with an increased role next season, as he's been great coming down the stretch. Tim O'Brien, the guy normally centering that line, didn't play. I'm not going to fully comment on that one without all the facts, but I sincerely hope that another all-time Icer great wasn't denied a final game in blue and white for something other than an undisclosed injury. The Bauer...err Morrone line (including Paul Daley and Mike Broccolo) was great too, but you don't need me to tell you that. The defensive effort was one of the best of the season, even with Brian Dolan, who had emerged as one of the unit's best, in warmups for this one as well.

The game ended rather quickly and with little fanfare. The Icers are the ACHA's 11th place team, which I guess is better than being 12th, but I'm still not sure how to handle the strange creature of the consolation game. I hope to not have to figure it out again next year.

Quarterfinals

Box score // Delaware press release

Originally, I was going to do these in chronological order, like yesterday. This game changed that. Because while I've witnessed a lot of hockey games in my life few, if any, were better than this one. It qualified as a good game all along, but drank some tiger blood and became great in the last minute of regulation, when the Hens' Brandon Weiner scored twice with the goalie out on pretty identical-looking plays to tie up a game that had looked like it had slipped away from UD. I ran into Kyle Drury just outside the locker rooms during the (first) overtime intermission and got my second-ever exclusive with him:

Me: How about that one?

Him: Holy shit!

Yeah, pretty much. And the two overtime periods somehow managed to one-up that by offering the most intense, heart-stopping hockey of the tournament so far. Heart-stopping? Yes. There were three power plays in the overtimes (two for UD) and myriad chances in each. SJ Broadt stopped two breakaways - I was convinced it was over each time, but he came up clutch. My dog in the hunt was on its way back to State College, but I was still on edge until a parked-in-front Kevin Miller put it home with just under eight minutes left in the second overtime.

Think I'm exaggerating how great of a game this was? Check out my Twitter feed after getting back to the hotel.

Miller: What a win for @UDHockey after double overtime #notbuiltforthis

Josh Weiner: Speechless. Most incredible sporting Event I've been apart of. Down two with a min left and tie it up. Win in 2OT.

Dave Lombardi: Just finished the most exciting game of my life, @UDHockey 5-4 win in 2OT. Can't believe I was on ice for GWG, was taking 15 second shifts!

Josh Weiner again: @kcmiller12 @ColonelBrundon @2dogs1SJ were the heroes but what an effort by the whole squad. Let's get it tuesday. #final4

Andre Menard: Most exciting game I've ever been a part of @UDHockey here we go #final4

Ryan McDonald: The feeling I am experiencing right now is the reason I play hockey. Most exciting game of my life!

Nick Lepore: Too tired to realize what just happened. Unreal game though just a real barn burner out there.

Good luck to Delaware on Tuesday. Had they lost, the final four would've been three schools I never would've heard of without the ACHA and Ohio. That's reason enough to get their back.

Ohio press release // Box score

The Bobcats have to be one of the most schizophrenic teams out there - the score graphic above provides a nice little illustration of how this one went. When they're on, they're absolutely capable of justifying my championship prediction. They're sturdy defensively behind the lead pair of Steve Osacky and Zack Barbis, have a great goalie in Blake MacNicol, and a ton of forwards with clearly-defined roles, including some big-time scorers. Despite all of this, after they came out flying in the first period, Oakland controlled the second. It could have been even worse than 3-2 after two, as the Grizzlies hit a post flush on a power play and had a goal questionably waved off in addition to the two they scored that period. Here's the Ohio recap to finish it out:

With Oakland closing in, it was up in the air about how the third period would be played out.

Everyone in Fred Rust arena quickly knew the answer.

Thirty-three seconds from the opening puck drop in the third, Pilmore put the ‘Cats up 4-2 on a set-up from Zack Barbis.

The momentum was shifting Ohio’s way.

Five minutes later, Defenseman Jake Holzemer lit up a shot that beat Pikunas to increase the lead to 5-2. Schultz collected his second assist of the day and third of the tournament while Holzemer has now scored in both tournament duels.

Thirty-seven seconds after Holzemer lit the lamp, Agnew poured salt on the Grizzlies’ wounds with a hat trick! Ben Gilles earned the assist.

Davenport press release // Box score

Does anyone want to think about what happens if Penn State ends up in this game? Me neither. I obviously have a lot of respect for the ESCHL champs, which is what makes this result so stunning. There's a very large, very obvious and very disturbing question in play here as well - have the Icers and their presumed equals fallen this far behind the top of the ACHA? That's probably not something that can be answered right now, or maybe even before we're out of the ACHA's top level, but this game was not a good indicator on that front. Davenport recap:

The line of Sean McKenzie (Howell, Mich.), Matt Morang (Dearborn, Mich.), and Jeff Slusser (Kentwood, Mich.) powered the Panther offense this afternoon as DU pummeled the University of Rhode Island Rams 9-1 in the National Quarterfinal game.

The Panthers started off quickly as DU scored there first three shots on goal as McKenzie, Bobby Collar (Brighton, Mich.), and Sean McWhorter (Lansing, Mich.) put the #2 seed up 3-0 within five minutes of the game. McKenzie scored from below the goal line off a URI defender to give the Panthers the early lead. Bobby Collar scored another highlight reel goal as DU senior shelved a pass from Kyle McDowell (Toronto, Ontario). McWhorter put DU up by three as he unleashed a wrist shot from the slot on the powerplay.

Later in the period, Collar took advantage of a URI miscue as the forward deked the goaltender for the shorthanded tally.

The second period was much of the same as DU continued the onslaught. McKenzie completed the hattrick as the Panthers also received goals from Brandon Davis (Hartland, Mich.) and Morang. Despite giving up a powerplay goal, the Panthers led after 40 minutes of play, 8-1.

Lindenwood press release // Box score

Given that this one was pretty squarely opposite the Icers game, I'll have to pass on offering any original thoughts. Here are Lindenwood's:

The Lindenwood men’s ice hockey team defeated Oklahoma 4-1 on Sunday afternoon in the quarterfinals of the ACHA National Tournament. This win was the fifth victory over the Sooners this season for the Lions.

Lindenwood jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first period, thanks to two goals from Grant Gorczyca. The first goal was assisted by Bret Morrell, while the second came from a pass by Jeremy Meletti.

The only score in the second period was netted by Colin Long, who received a pass from Alex Roth.

Meletti got on the scoring sheet, with Gorczyca returning the earlier favor, assisting along with Cory Spradling on the goal. Oklahoma scored a short-handed goal late in the game to lessen the deficit, but it was not enough to threaten the Lions’ lead.

Robi Cavallari stopped 15 shots between the pipes for Lindenwood. The Lions converted two out of seven power plays in the win. 

Consolation Games



Ninth-Place Game

Box score

Thirteenth-Place Game

Box score

Fifteenth-Place Game

Box score

Final Tournament Placement

1. Lindenwood/Davenport/Ohio/Delaware
2. Lindenwood/Davenport/Ohio/Delaware
3. Lindenwood/Davenport/Ohio/Delaware
4. Lindenwood/Davenport/Ohio/Delaware
5. Adrian
6. Rhode Island
7. Oklahoma
8. Oakland
9. Minot State
10. Arizona State
11. Penn State
12. Robert Morris (IL)
13. Stony Brook
14. Canton
15. Slippery Rock
16. Rutgers

Remaining Schedule

Semifinals

Tuesday:
Davenport vs. Ohio, 5:00 p.m., Fred Rust Ice Arena
Lindenwood vs. Delaware, 8:00 p.m., Fred Rust Ice Arena

Final

Wednesday:
Lindenwood/Delaware vs. Davenport/Ohio, 7:00 p.m., Fred Rust Ice Arena

Natty Light (Part I)

The ACHA D1 national championship tournament gets started Saturday morning from Newark, DE, home to the University of Delaware and its ice rinks. And as usual, Hockey101.com is conducting a tournament pool to determine who is the smartest/luckiest person following the ACHA. I'm not too proud to admit that my pool entry completely sucks every single year. But since I'm not afraid of a little accountability and the beaks that go with it, I thought I'd approach my preview of nationals by sharing my selections as well as some of the reasoning that went into them.

Here are some quick looks at each first-round matchup, with the rest of the tournament based on my probably-faulty predictions following in Part II tomorrow.

First Round

3. Ohio (27-6-2) vs. 14. Canton (26-7-1)

Saturday, 10:00 a.m.

Fred Rust Ice Arena

This is really hard for me to do, but I have to give the Bobcats some credit. At various points in time, possibly on this blog, possibly not, I've called them overrated, tournament chokers and implied that they have relations with farm animals. And none of that is true. Well, maybe the last thing is, I don't have first-hand knowledge, and OU does not get the benefit of the doubt from me.

One thing that's undeniable though: OU is deep. And not in the way that is usually meant - balanced scoring - but in a way that's even more beneficial come tournament time, they have outstanding role players. Guys like Billy Hemann, Jared Fuhs and Alex DiMassa are stout defensive forwards, while Michael Schultz and Tyler Pilmore provide a lot of scoring. And as we know, look out for Brett Agnew on the power play. Thanks largely to these guys and goalie Blake MacNicol, Ohio is coming off of a CSCHL tournament championship game shutout of Lindenwood and is flying high coming into nationals.

With a 4-0 win over the Lions on Sunday, [head coach Dan] Morris said his team is in a good place heading into the American Collegiate Hockey Association Tournament.

"Psychologically we had to get over the hump and beat a team like Lindenwood," Morris said. "We played in some tight games this weekend and we did a good job of closing them out."

ECHL regular season and tournament champion Canton is capable of keeping this game close - they took Kent State to a shootout, and the Flashes were occasionally competitive with CSCHL rival OU. A stretch? Probably. But Jimmy Merrow gives them the goaltending to be able to hang in long enough to pull off the stunner if the Bobcats take the Kangaroos lightly.

Pick: Ohio, 5-1.

6. Minot State (26-2-3) vs. 11. Oakland (23-11-5)

Saturday, 11:00 a.m.

Gold Ice Arena

You know Minot State, right? They're that team that plays a schedule of about 20 games, each a couple weeks after the last, all against Dakota College at Botteneau. While geography and finances will always limit their schedule, this year that assumption is a little bit off - their resume includes wins over tournament teams Stony Brook, Arizona State, Oklahoma and Robert Morris (IL). It also includes zero regulation losses against ACHA teams. Not bad. Kale Dolinski and Kent Lillejord put up the points, but goalie Wyatt Waselenchuk might prove to be the guy who makes the difference. Head coach Wade Regier:

If you could categorize us as one particular thing we're definitely speed and kind of one of those things that we're very, very deep with depth and we got three lines that can come out with speed.

Oakland sort of has the opposite reputation coming out of the Michigan-based GLCHL with the likes of Davenport and Adrian in their conference. It's partially for this reason that the Grizzlies could be seen as a chic upset pick, as they beat both of those teams in winning the conference's playoff championship. They're led on the scoresheet by Jordan MacDonald, as well as World University Games team members Kevin Kranker and defenseman Jacob DeSano but also like to boast of some great depth as well. This really could prove to be one of the best games of the tournament.

Pick: Minot State, 4-3.

2. Davenport (33-6-4) vs. 15. Rutgers (19-9-0)

Saturday, 1:00 p.m.

Fred Rust Ice Arena

Well, we had the chance to see Rutgers for ourselves last weekend. Anyone think they have a shot on the back of that one? If there is any hope for the Scarlet Knights, it's that Davenport, while supremely talented, hasn't been playing their best hockey down the stretch of their quest to pull a 2007 Oakland and win the Murdoch Cup in their first D1 season after years as a D2 juggernaut. First was an upset loss to those Grizzlies in the GLCHL championship game February 19th. Then, an even worse loss - a Senior Night clunker against D2 Michigan State, 4-3 in a shootout.

All of that said, no sale. Rutgers does have a little bit of punch with Jason Adams and the two guys who scored on the Icers (John Beatrice and Matt McDonald), but you need defense and goaltending to pull off an upset like this, and RU has neither.

Pick: Davenport, 11-2.

7. Rhode Island (30-4-1) vs. 10. Penn State (22-10-1)

Saturday, 2:00 p.m.

Gold Ice Arena

I'm not really sure what's left to be said about either team at this point. Obviously, if you read TYT, you probably have a pretty decent idea of the state of the Icers. Rhode Island has also received its share of run here as an ESCHL rival, and I'm pretty impressed with them. They have top-five talent and arguably have had a top-five season, even if their ranking doesn't reflect it. This disparity is due in part to their tendency to play down to competition, but as their last three games against Delaware showed, when something's on the line, they get themselves going at a high level. Defensemen Alan Dionne and Dan Lassik are the guys who drive the bus to me, but one of the deeper sets of forwards around and two effective goalies certainly don't hurt matters either.

The ESCHL champs have deep-run potential. Photo: URI official site

In a lot of ways, this has been a disappointing season for the Icers, there's really no way to sugarcoat it. We've seen weekends bad enough to send me digging into the history books (notably, the weekend in question was against Rhody), we've seen inexplicable losses to bad teams, and some general awfulness against good ones. The net result was a slot in the rankings worse than almost anyone can remember and sweating out a nationals bid, something once considered unthinkable.

On the plus side of the ledger, this is also a team that saw tremendous adversity following that brutal weekend in Athens to open the spring semester (including the departures of Tim O'Brien, Eric Steinour and coach Scott Balboni for the World University Games to go with a wave of injuries) and beat it down like Derek Boogaard. Gritty splits with Delaware and Rhode Island ensured a record 20th consecutive nationals bid, and PSU was clicking on all cylinders last weekend against Rutgers. I really have no idea which way to go with this one, so I'll go homer on you guys, sorry. If I'm wrong though, I wouldn't be surprised to see URI take down Davenport in round 2. Just hedging a little.

Pick: Penn State, 4-3.

1. Lindenwood (29-3-0) vs. 16. Slippery Rock (21-10-2)

Saturday, 4:00 p.m.

Fred Rust Ice Arena

Pepper Jack, are you serious?

Pick: Lindenwood, 13-0.

8. Arizona State (27-7-4) vs. 9. Oklahoma (28-15-1)

Saturday, 5:00 p.m.

Gold Ice Arena

Remember everything I said about Minot State above? Well, replace Dakota College at Bottineau with Arizona and a smattering of lower-division teams out west and you could be talking about ASU. And you'd be just as wrong in thinking that this year. In fact ASU played the Beavers, winning one in a shootout. A three-point weekend against Rhode Island, shootout wins against Ohio and Robert Morris (IL) and one of the regulation variety against Adrian are part of their record this season. Oh, and there's the small matter of the four games against the Sooners and a 2-0-2 record in those games. The undisputed star of the Sun Devils is leading scorer Joe Schweiger.

As for the Sooners, I'll be honest and say that I'm not completely convinced they deserve to be here with 15 losses, albeit against a brutal schedule. They do have Oakland's number, collecting two shootout wins against the Grizzlies in November, then two more of the more conventional variety in February. Other than that? Credit for a bunch of close losses and weekends where the other team came away happier is seemingly what got them in. Even in their shootout win over ASU in January, they blew a three-goal third period lead before recovering to take the skills competition. Proving me wrong about all of this will be largely up to goalie Matt Pombo (3.91 goals against average) and Blake Martin, a one-time Nebraska-Omaha (NCAA DI) transfer who leads the team in points...and penalty minutes.

Pick: Arizona State, 6-3.

5. Delaware (29-5-2) vs. 12. Robert Morris (IL) (26-9-1)

Saturday, 7:00 p.m.
Fred Rust Ice Arena

In the NCAA basketball tournament, the 5 vs. 12 matchup is famous for producing upsets. Since ACHA Division 1 went to the 16-team single-elimination format in 2005, the 12 seed hasn't done quite as much damage there, with a 1-5 record. Interestingly enough, the 1 came from Delaware, who upset Oklahoma en route to the semifinals in 2007.

This year might be different though. Robert Morris (IL) is coming into this thing having had to scratch and claw their way to the tournament as the last team in (thanks again, autobids), and they had to hold off long-time ACHA powers Illinois and Iowa State to do it. Playoff mode for them included wins over Arizona State and Ohio, with the latter probably serving as a death blow to the Cyclones' tournament streak. Senior goalie Dan Venet is good enough to frustrate Kevin Miller, Ryan McDonald and the rest of the Hens' firepower.

One other thing that might work against Delaware (another ESCHL foe of course, here's more reading) - home ice. It sounds counter-intuitive, but not since Ohio's run to the final in 2003 has a host team made any kind of significant noise at nationals. To be fair, Delaware's the best team to host since (and possibly including) then, so that little factoid might be completely meaningless. And with that Olympic sheet at Fred Rust, UD's advantage is a little greater than having the last change.

What evil lurks within?

Ultimately, I think Delaware cracks Venet. But I wouldn't be that surprised to be wrong about this one.

Pick: Delaware, 5-4.

4. Adrian (31-6-2) vs. 13. Stony Brook (22-13-0)

Saturday, 8:00 p.m.
Gold Ice Arena

Adrian's new to this rodeo, as the fourth-year D1 program burst on to the scene this year, compiling an impressive 6-4-1 record against tournament teams, including an eye-popping 2-1-1 against No. 2 Davenport.

This is also a program that's come a long way in a pretty short time - they lost to the Icers 16-1 as recently as the 2008-2009 season. If those aren't enough reasons to root for these guys, try this one on for size: they had their Senior Night cancelled because Buffalo couldn't be bothered to show up. You have to think that the four seniors - Tom Ciaverilla, Jared Semple, Chad Bonmon and Mike Yakamovich - will be hell-bent on earning a much more meaningful Senior Night in Delaware that includes some hardware.


Bruiser the Bulldog does not approve of programs that haven't mattered since the ICHL acting bush and screwing up his Senior Night.

Stony Brook, the ECHA champion, is highest-seeded autobid team, and for good reason. They played six games against Rhode Island and Delaware, the top two ESCHL teams, and while they went 0-6-0 in those games, the losses were by a combined eight goals. Clearly, this is not a team that's intimidated by the top tier. Closer game than many might expect, but the better team takes this one.

Pick: Adrian, 6-4.